بررسی تأثیر خطای پیش‌بینی سود دورۀ قبل بر واکنش بازار به پیش‌بینی سود مدیریت، و انواع مختلف مدیریت سود

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشیار حسابداری، دانشگاه شهید باهنر کرمان

2 عضو هیات علمی گروه حسابداری، دانشگاه ولیعصر (عج)

3 کارشناس ارشدحسابداری، دانشگاه ولیعصر (عج)

چکیده

هدف این پژوهش بررسی واکنش بازار به اخبار خوب یا بد شرکت‌ها با توجه به نوع پیش‌بینی سود سال قبل آن‌ها، تمایل مدیران به حفظ یا اصلاح شهرت خود در پیش‌بینی و مقایسه تمایل مدیران به مدیریت افزایشی سود از طریق انواع مختلف مدیریت سود با توجه به نوع پیش‌بینی سال قبل آن‌ها می‌باشد. بدین منظور صورت‌های مالی 86 شرکت پذیرفته شده در بورس اوراق بهادار تهران طی سال‌های 1385-1391 مورد تجزیه و تحلیل قرار گرفت. به منظور دست‌یابی به اهداف پژوهش، شرکت‌ها بر اساس نوع پیش‌بینی سال قبل و سال جاری و محتوای اخبار پیش‌بینی سال جاری گروه‌بندی شدند. سپس با در نظر گرفتن ساختار ترکیبی داده‌ها و آزمون‌های آماری مناسب فرضیه‌ها آزمون شدند. نتایج بیانگر آن است که واکنش بازار به پیش‌بینی سود با محتوای اخبار خوب (بد)، زمانی که پیش‌بینی دورۀ قبل بدبینانه (خوشبینانه) است، مثبت‌تر (منفی‌تر) از حالتی است که پیش‌بینی دورۀقبل خوشبینانه (بدبینانه)است.همچنین مدیران در پیش‌بینی‌های خود از ثبات‌رفتاری برخوردار می‌باشند.علاوه براین، نتایج حاکی از این است که پیش‌بینی خوشبینانه در دورۀقبل می‌تواندعاملی جهت مدیریت‌افزایشی سود در دورۀ جاری باشد.

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